*!LiveStream#? Kansas vs Baylor, @Live®
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TV schedule: Monday, January 18, 9:00 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas
One of the biggest matchups in the Big 12 this season is slated for Monday night when the Baylor Bears host the Kansas Jayhawks, in a showdown of two of the best defenses in college basketball.
The Jayhawks (10–3) are coming off a week-long break, having last played on January 12, which yielded a disappointing 75–70 loss at Oklahoma State. Since Kansas’ impressive streak of wins over Creighton, Texas Tech, and West Virginia, the Jayhawks have had a tumultuous return from Christmas, getting blown out in the first contest of the year at Texas, dismantling TCU on the road, and struggling with Oklahoma in a four-point win for Kansas on January 9th.
Despite the loss, Kansas got one of the best performances in David McCormack‘s three-year tenure, recording season-highs in points (24 on 10–18 2PT, 4–4 FT), rebounds (12), and blocks (three). Joining him in double-figures were Ochai Agbaji (14 points on 4–9 3PT) and Marcus Garrett (12 points on 6–9 2PT) — necessary performances given the struggles of fellow starters Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson, who amassed a combined four points, with Wilson finishing as a game-worst minus-16 for the tilt.
It’s not like the Jayhawks played awfully, either — they averaged 1.00 points per possession, shot 56.1% (23–41) on two-pointers, and hauled down 12 offensive rebounds. But it was an uphill climb for nearly the entirety of the contest. The Jayhawks faced an 11-point deficit at halftime and trailed by as much as 16 points in the second half, 65–49, with 9:16 left.
But after that, the Jayhawks embarked on a 21–2 run to take a three-point lead with just over a minute left — but failed to seal the deal. The Cowboys held Kansas to 0–4 shooting in the final minute, finishing the game on a 7–0 route. Where the Jayhawks’ issues arose were from the charity stripe — despite outscoring the Cowboys from the floor, Kansas went 9–9 from the line — while Oklahoma State took 20 trips, knocking down 16.
Now, Kansas will line up against a Baylor squad that gets to the charity stripe 19 times a game. The Bears (12–0) have cemented themselves as one of the two best teams in college basketball, alongside Gonzaga, and have most recently ripped off four-straight Big 12 wins to begin the new year, earning victories over Iowa State, Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas Tech.
The Bears’ most recent victory on Saturday yielded the first single-digit result in Baylor’s schedule, in a 68–60 win at Texas Tech. In what has been a theme for Baylor during Big 12 play, the Bears struggled to put away the Raiders in the first half, leading by seven at halftime — before facing a three-point deficit seven minutes into the second stanza. The two squads went back-and-forth, before — with Baylor leading 52–47 at the five-minute mark — the Bears amassed a lead as large as 10.
Baylor uncharacteristically struggled from the offensive end, tallying just 45.2%, 37.5%, and 59.1% marks on 2PT, 3PT, and FT, respectively. Likewise, Baylor’s All-American talent Jared Butler struggled as well, tallying just seven points while fouling out. His teammates, however, succeeded at filling the gaps — Davion Mitchell (19 points, 6–12 FG) and MaCio Teague (12 points, 6–9 2PT) were both instrumental in the starting lineup, while Adam Flagler supplied 15 points off the bench.
Despite Baylor’s offensive woes, their defense — which now ranks as the most efficient defense in the nation, as a result of this game and Clemson’s woeful performance against Virginia — stepped up big, holding Tech to 0.86 points per possession while allowing 42.1% and 25.0% clips from inside and outside. Most notably, the Bears forced the Raiders to commit 20 turnovers, which they scored 22 points on to Tech’s 12.
Where this game could come down to is Kansas’ ability — or inability — to defend from beyond the arc. The Jayhawks rank in the top 100 nationally in defending inside the arc, but are average (152nd) when defending from long-range, allowing opponents to shoot 33.0%. That is not awful, but the issue comes with just how good Baylor is from three — they rank third in Div. I, knocking down an impressive 42.3% of their outside shots.
Likewise, if Kansas hopes to win, they need to value the basketball. They are better than the Div. I average when it comes to turnover percentage, handing the ball over on just 18.2% of their possessions — but Baylor thrives on generating turnovers, forcing a deflection on 26.9% of opposing teams’ possessions. That ranks third nationally.
Where Kansas has enjoyed success at will also be difficult to utilize against the Bears. The Jayhawks’ 35.1% offensive rebounding percentage is the lone KenPom statistic (outside of offensive and defensive efficiency) where Kansas ranks in the top 30 (35.1%). Contrarily, however, the Bears are even better inside, hauling down an eighth-best 38.2% of their attempts.
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Even worse for Kansas is that this game is in Waco, where the Bears have won five games by double-digits — and by an average of 33.8 points. This game is crucial for both squads — Baylor cannot afford a slip-up in a top-heavy Big 12, while Kansas could desperately use a marquee defining win in the new year. However, Baylor might just be too good this year for the Jayhawks to keep up — especially considering their stellar play from outside
Prediction: Baylor 71 — Kansas 65
№2 Baylor (12–0, 5–0) takes on №6 Kansas (10–3, 4–2) at 8:00 on Monday in the Ferrell Center. The game airs on ESPN.
The Bears are the higher ranked KenPom team for the second time ever in this series. While you could argue the 2012 Bears should have been favored in Lawrence or Waco, or that a few other teams — most notably the 2017 team in Waco and the 2020 team in Waco — should have also been favored, this is a unique game. This is the first game in the series where every objective observer would say Baylor has the better team than Kansas.
Having the better team doesn’t guarantee a victory. KenPom gives the Jayhawks a 20% chance. The Jayhawks will be hungry. Bill Self noted after Kansas’ loss to Oklahoma State on Monday that his squad has “less than zero margin for error” to win the league. If Baylor wins this game, Kansas would need quite a run to win the league and also plenty of help.
Given the high stakes nature of this one, we’ll take a detailed look at playing offense against Kansas, then turn to defense. Finally, we’ll close with a prediction.
Flashback to last season.
The 28–3 Kansas Jayhawks and the 26–4 Baylor Bears looked destined to play in the National Championship game. Ranked №1, Kansas won the Big 12, while Baylor sat at №2 and finished second in the conference.
However, as we all know, the season was canceled, and the potential all-Big 12 National Championship game never occurred.
Fast forward to today. Kansas is a nine-point underdog in Monday night’s matchup. Nine-point underdogs to a Baylor team it beat on the road at the end of last season.
That’s a lot of points. Let’s talk about why.
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The Matchup
Baylor is 12–0 overall (5–0 in conference play), atop the Big 12 and ranked №2 in the nation. The Bears are the clear second-best team in the nation and perhaps the only threat to Gonzaga’s title hopes.
The Bears have also covered in three straight games, beating Oklahoma, TCU and most recently Texas Tech.
The win over Texas Tech was very impressive. The two were neck-and-neck with about seven minutes left in regulation, and then Jared Butler took over.
Butler, who I think should be the Big 12 Player of the Year, was so good at the end of that game. He drained two step-back 3s and made a great drive-and-kick assist to Davion Mitchell for another 3. Those nine points were the difference in that win.
On the other end, Kansas is 10–3 overall, 4–2 in conference play and ranked №6 nationally. The Jayhawks are now third in the Big 12.
Kansas suffered a home loss to second-place Texas earlier this month and most recently lost a tough road game to Oklahoma State. In that loss to the Cowboys, Kansas made just five of its 21 3-point attempts and had 15 turnovers to only nine assists.
A bright spot this season for Jayhawk fans has been junior big man David McCormack, and he’s excelled recently. He posted 24 points and eight rebounds against Oklahoma State, scored 17 points against Oklahoma and 20 points against TCU.
Kansas boasts a top-10 defense and is incredibly solid on that end. In fact, the Jayhawks are first in the Big 12 in 2-point percentage this season.
But the Jayhawks have not been shooting well, especially from 3-point range, where the team is making just 31.7% of its attempts, ranking eighth in the conference.
Everybody knows what Baylor is about.
Scott Drew runs the dominant no-middle defense, the Bears have three two-way guards who can match up with any backcourt, and the Bears are first in the Big 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Without Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike, Kansas has a new look this season. However, the Jayhawks are still coached by Bill Self, and the team will play good defense and keep it close with almost anyone.
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What to Watch For: Kansas Bounce-Back and Baylor Letdown
Kansas is coming off a tough loss. Meanwhile, Baylor pulled off that huge win against a tough Texas Tech team.
But Baylor now has to play a second top-15 team on just one day of rest after a two-game road trip. Kansas just had five days of rest, practice and time to game-plan for a team it knows very well.
For Kansas, this is a classic “Hungry Dog Runs Faster” game, as it will look to bounce back after a loss that happened almost a week ago.
For Baylor, this is a tough spot. The Bears seem primed for a letdown game after an incredible start to the season. Baylor won its first 11 games by double-digits before it defeated Texas Tech by eight.
Kansas should look fresh and motivated, while Baylor might look a little sluggish.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Shout out to our own Mike Randle for this:
Nine points is far too much for this matchup. This is a Big 12 conference game between two of the best teams in the country. Drew and Self have coached against each other twice a year since 2004, and they are very familiar with one another.
I think this game will unfold similarly to how Baylor-Texas Tech did. It will be a grind-it-out, defensive battle that remains close until the final minutes. The under is 8–2 in the last 10 games between Kansas and Baylor because Kansas and Baylor always play grind-it-out, defensive battles.
I’m still expecting Baylor to win and stay undefeated, but I don’t expect it to take this one by double digits. Self is a covering machine in Waco, and I’m really confident playing Kansas +9 in this spot.
Pick: Kansas +9 (-120).
